How did Russia-Ukraine relations get so rocky (again)?

Considering the history of the region, this doesn’t come as much of a surprise. As Western powers condemn the move and threaten harsh economic sanctions, Canada has taken the backseat.

Welcome to the 58th issue of The Supplement, a newsletter that fills in the gaps of your other news intake. This is Sam, one-third of The Supplement team! 

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This week, we’re tackling this question: How did Russia-Ukraine relations get so rocky (again)? 

TL;DR: Over the last few weeks, Russia has amassed as many as 100,000 troops on the borders it shares with Ukraine, raising concerns about an invasion in early 2022. Considering the history of the region, this doesn’t come as much of a surprise. As Western powers condemn the move and threaten harsh economic sanctions, Canada has taken the backseat, but is considering boosting a controversial military presence in the country.

Over the last few weeks, Russia has amassed as many as 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s eastern, northern and southern borders, a concerning new development in the slow-moving war of attrition that has been ongoing for decades. 

A few facts to get us started: 

• Ukraine is home to 44 million people, and was a part of the Soviet Union until 1991. Putin believes that it should be subservient to Russia. 

• In recent years Ukraine has pushed back against Russia and looked for allyship with the West instead. Its current president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is known for having that mentality.

• The Russia threat is real, and it has erupted in violence before: most recently, Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 (most of the world does not acknowledge it as Russian territory). 

Today, experts say that Russia could have its military prepared to launch an invasion of Ukraine in the first few months of 2022 (and then potentially beyond that?). But several countries’ intelligence services say there’s no indication that President Vladimir Putin has decided whether or not to do so, leaving everyone asking: what will happen next? 

What the United States is saying: US intelligence has revealed that Russia envisions 175,000 troops moving across Ukraine’s border as part of a recent war plan. 

Several countries have now condemned Russia’s move. On Dec. 12 , the foreign ministers for the Group of 7 — Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States — sent a stern warning, noting that “further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe cost in response,” but did not specify what that might look like.

What Russia is saying: US President Joe Biden and Putin spoke on a tense video call last week, during which Putin insisted that NATO is the one threatening Russia’s security and that other countries should not be concerned about Ukraine. In response, Biden threatened harsh economic penalties. 

What Ukraine is saying: Commanders say that a Russian invasion would overwhelm the country without direct help from the US, despite the fact that they already have the assistance of American equipment and training. 

What Canada is saying: Here’s some great analysis from Justin Ling. He notes that despite Canada’s past involvement in Ukraine affairs over the years — both monetarily and in boots-in-the-ground presence, and even as the first Western country to recognize Ukraine’s independence — it is now taking a backseat to the rest of the West’s current hardline approach. He writes that “Ottawa’s attention seems to be elsewhere, even when the conversations are happening in its own living room."

In late October, the federal government began a military review following new concerns raised by Jewish groups that Canadian troops were involved in training neo-Nazis in Ukraine. According to reporting from the Ottawa Citizen, the Canadian military was warned six years ago about the dangers of the far-right within the Ukrainian military ranks — but the concerns went mostly ignored. 

All that being said, Canada is considering boosting its military presence in the region. Petro Poroshenko, the former president of Ukraine, is also asking Canada to become more actively involved in the country’s push for NATO membership. Ukraine has wanted to join for 13 years.

P.S. Earlier this week, an elementary school teacher in Quebec was removed from her classroom for wearing a hijab as a result of a relatively new provincial bill that bars civil servants from wearing ‘religious symbols.’ We’ll be breaking that story down as an extra post on our Instagram.

Here’s a story to check out: 

This week, I dove into this beautifully produced Toronto Star story on the lonely life of Kiska, Canada’s lone captive orca, and how a years-long campaign to help get her out of Marineland and back into the wild has once again bubbled to the surface. 

Here’s someone to follow: 

Maybe Richard Warnica is an obvious recommendation if you already know his work. After all, he is one of the most prolific feature writers in the country. But that’s exactly why you need to start following him if you aren’t — so that you can read stories like this recently-published behemoth, which somehow manages to interweave “the largest art fraud of the late 20th century, the greatest betrayal in the history of the New York art world, and the inauguration of Donald Trump.” 

Finally, it’s that time of year when we’re all permanently exhausted. Here’s a fantastic recipe for apple pie cinnamon rolls to get you through it.