How will the U.S. election impact Canada? What do I need to know about the results?

Sigh, *another* election breakdown? Here's the thing — this one will help you look at the results through a lens of Canadian impact, all in one convenient place.

Hey there, and welcome to the fourth issue of The Supplement, a newsletter that fills in the gaps of your other news intake. This is Sierra, one-third of the Supplement team! 

Each week, we pick a question submitted by you, our readers. If you’d like to submit a question for a future week — it can seriously be about anything — then email us at thesupplementnewsletter@gmail.com.

This week, we’re tackling this question: How will the U.S. election impact Canada? What do I need to know about the results?

TL;DR:

Regardless of who wins the election, there are still major challenges ahead for both the U.S. and Canada. Keep an eye on climate policy, immigration and the economy and how the election will influence those spaces for us here, north of the border. There will still be difficulties no matter the outcome. 

Here’s our answer:

We know you’re being inundated with results and live updates right now — and that a lot is still up in the air. So we’ve broken down the U.S. election’s potential impact into categories, and linked to the pieces we’ve found most helpful. Once results are officially declared, we hope you find it useful to refer back to this guide to see what might happen on specific issues.

Climate and Environment 

Biden and Trump’s climate policies differ greatly, and each offer a very different energy future. 

Trump, since the beginning, has wanted more pipelines and less regulation — and the U.S. has now formally left the Paris Accord. Biden has said he’ll cancel the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta within his fairly extensive environment platform. This is the best breakdown I’ve seen. 

At the end of the day, the outcomes will each present difficulties for Canada in making better climate policy. However, a Biden win would give Canada a partner next door who is more aligned with our goals.

Immigration

In the U.S., there’s usually one party that supports immigration and one that doesn’t. 

But this year, asylum seekers in particular are in limbo: There is hope that Biden will fulfill campaign promises to lead to a more humane system for “irregular migration.” There’s fear that Trump would worsen their situation.

The winner might not change how many people come to Canada. But it could affect the demographics of who arrives. For example, under Trump, the tech sector started to actively promote Canada as a place to move when the U.S. made it harder for skilled workers to get visas.

Economy

An uncertain election result is affecting Canada. In some ways, the uncertainty has been seen as beneficial. However, experts are warning that stocks could be especially volatile in the event of even more delayed results or a protracted power struggle.

In terms of trade, neither Trump or Biden win will signal an end to trade disputes with the U.S. But Biden has promised some potential initiatives that would alleviate tensions with Canada, like a modified Trans-Pacific Partnership.

What Canadian leaders are saying

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been quiet, but said he is “carefully” watching results as they roll in, and that Canada will be willing to work with whomever is elected. Alongside Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, he has a series of contingency response plans ready, including one to help Canadians abroad in the case of civil unrest in the U.S.

A senior official told The Globe and Mail that Mr. Trudeau does not want to become embroiled in U.S. electoral politics.

The anxiety is real, even in Canada

It’s been called one of the more polarizing campaigns in recent history, and many of the last few months have been marked by violence — with fear of more violence after results come. 

A poll from Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies found that three-quarters of those surveyed in Canada are worried about the U.S. election, and 68 per cent worry that there will be a “complete breakdown of the political system in the U.S. leading to a period of social chaos.”

Twitter enters the chat

Will Shelling @willshelling

If you're Canadian, do not act like white supremacy, systemic racism, inequality, and right-wing extremism don't exist here. This election can happen here too. Watch with concern, not amusement.

Kate Elizabeth Korte @katekorte

When you RT something false to mock it, you add fuel to the fire. Your engagement helps boost that information algorithmically. I know you need to say "omg look this is dumb" but you also really don't. Follow journalists like @JaneLytv and @ddale8 and just RT their fact checks.

VIKA MANA / MELEIKA @endlessyarning

Stop romanticising Canada, New Zealand and Australia, as safe spaces and saviours, when they’re colonies too, and Indigenous people continue to suffer, die and are murdered.

Here’s someone to follow:

This week, I’m going to suggest you follow Murad Hemmadi from The Logic. He writes about business, innovation policy and … the odd lentil trade story.

Here’s a story to read:

After some election reading, I’m going to prescribe you this story from Al Jazeera about how the legacy of the Vietnam War has shaped the political divide and large support for Donald Trump within the Vietnamese-American community. (Bonus: this first-person piece on the same topic from Vox.)

Photo ekaden, Creative Commons